Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 72492.458721 76595.645092 80702.203865 85117.552257 89727.644306 94396.062941 99477.909029
2026-02-08 65730.600491 71974.450273 78401.297661 85501.756488 93117.272084 101030.736806 109866.184128
2026-02-15 60555.240692 68220.787522 76288.401356 85393.415889 95364.348218 105932.412583 117960.983166
2026-02-22 57440.112967 66258.032340 75710.528664 86566.157281 98656.829301 111677.299352 126726.710364
2026-03-01 54670.902340 64390.883088 74979.778008 87326.688822 101280.836807 116515.072487 134355.673321
2026-03-08 51802.955510 62193.013703 73680.396710 87261.490759 102814.731773 120004.777009 140373.104028
2026-03-15 49544.465711 60534.466316 72850.166783 87594.386019 104682.176449 123777.649704 146641.560099
2026-03-22 48234.697909 59875.460225 73079.781780 89066.403360 107791.822817 128922.760197 154458.289514
2026-03-29 46831.319766 59017.335328 73000.432978 90110.519452 110352.903855 133405.479579 161503.732745
2026-04-05 45373.637633 58015.069736 72681.774786 90810.735606 112462.543510 137334.067791 167895.626408
2026-04-12 43638.625609 56599.053568 71799.839579 90775.668357 113648.766688 140144.109394 172956.394538
2026-04-19 42113.046994 55372.396535 71085.708723 90886.632692 114963.471155 143074.267616 178143.752743
2026-04-26 40510.032809 54008.937711 70174.733547 90739.738267 115965.567735 145651.238609 182957.376267
2026-05-03 39376.979757 53189.648326 69895.067436 91335.864151 117851.588122 149284.852426 189055.722819
2026-05-10 37990.997711 51998.538092 69108.337997 91263.963335 118887.679658 151873.867170 193890.553443
2026-05-17 37319.562128 51689.003079 69397.626907 92511.372416 121539.374842 156427.341999 201131.134741
2026-05-24 36486.577012 51137.136249 69352.794439 93316.260108 123627.907531 160291.593181 207545.723686
2026-05-31 35306.643588 50092.145177 68644.063676 93247.913201 124598.602274 162766.307164 212251.732506
2026-06-07 34376.052387 49342.571978 68284.960526 93599.387760 126079.179405 165863.705853 217733.076595
2026-06-14 34014.521094 49331.849371 68867.927750 95152.964125 129084.359648 170870.872412 225616.963345
2026-06-21 33482.879684 49072.220840 69110.233480 96254.764712 131510.719208 175162.515097 232631.838742
2026-06-28 32827.952211 48623.172867 69085.036010 96993.592528 133464.267913 178862.814893 238922.356967
2026-07-05 31890.007791 47759.290263 68485.614988 96956.593248 134399.309088 181267.388692 243582.518206